Curb your Serbia doomsday enthusiasm
By now, most of you are well aware that Serbian Radical Party vice-president (which is to say, acting president, in the absence of Hague resident Vojislav Šešelj) Tomislav Nikolić has been elected president of the Serbian parliament with the help of PM Vojislav Koštunica's DS(P)S and Ivica Dačić's SPS, among others.
And of course Western media either missed the story completely at this writing (including the Washington Post and the New York Times, which are only partially excused by dint of their rolling back their foreign correspondents to near dependence on the wires), or accented the Serbian doomsday-around-the-corner angle.
The story merits more than silence, but not exaggeration. The BBC (edit: unlike CNN) omitted a key fact: unless Serbian parties unveil a new government by midnight of March 14, they will have exceeded the 90-day constitutional period to form a government, parliament will be dissolved, and Serbia will have to hold new elections.
In other words, Mr. Nikolić may enjoy a whopping six more days as parliamentary president.
To be sure, many worry that new elections, after three months with Serbia in search of a functioning government, may produce a bigger Radical share of the vote.
But I'm not aware of anyone with credible data to suggest that the SRS will punch through with more than 35% of the vote. (If there is contrary evidence, do comment below, and cite your source!)
Still, we all wonder if the DSS will continue this bridge-building to form a post-election government with the SRS. (Our friends at East Ethnia have some darkly funny suggestions for portfolio candidates.)
Quite possibly. But look at it this way. Even if they do bring back the likes of Aleksandar Vučić (see below) into government, for a costly few years of stalled reform and foreign policy gaffes, it's not as if the EU will be serious about integrating Serbia for some time anyway, and the Radicals will have more incentive to stay within the bounds of the democratic game, compared to the scenario of continued permanent exclusion.
Indeed, if they ever did make it into a government coalition, the SRS would have to get dirty with the dangers of running a national government in coalition with a DSS that is hardly going to let itself be taken prisoner. Ruling a country always weakens the parties that do it. No one need fear that the SRS in government would somehow approximate the spectre of Germany circa early 1933. The SRS top leadership may be vocal and less than tolerant of minorities or opposition, but they are an imitation of their 1998-2000 selves, and they would not be ruling alone.
The state will simply continue to fail to provide for or protect citizens, especially journalists, against the Neanderthal segments among SRS or SPS supporters, but the state is unlikely to beat political groups or jail their leaders on a level anywhere close to that of 1999-2000.
At most, you may get some aggravation of the Kosovo issue (gun-running by SRS sympathizers, anyone?), but Kosovo Albanian leaders have warned for months of violence if independence doesn't come soon. Would another government in Belgrade, one without the SRS, really have found a solution to stop that?
And therein lies the rub. No Serbian government wants to be the one that formally "lost" Kosovo. Least of all one with SRS participation. The SRS will, at a minimum, have to think hard about joining at all. The position of parliamentary president is far less risk to them, precisely because it carries less responsibility.
Sometimes I wonder if Serbia's political elite will find ways to avoid having a government for as many elections as it takes, until the Kosovo issue is resolved.
As for Vučić, today's Dan (article not online yet at this writing) has him quoted as saying that Nikolić, if elected, would show "what freedom of speech means" and demonstrate himself to be a man who is always "calm and tolerant towards political opponents." I hope Vučić, who literally turned in a tour-de-force performance as Minister for Truth Backed By A Big Stick in 1998-2000, will be taking notes.
(P.S. As usual, the views of this blog reflect the personal views of the author, and in no way reflect the views of any organization. I'll fight to keep what's mine. ;-)
6 comments:
The most intriguing question is definitely how Nikolic will act now that he is in a position with some measure of authority -- a place he has never been before. SRS has done an interesting balancing act over the past few years, "legalist" at the top with incidents created by people not in the leadership. That might be easier to maintain outside of the institutions, though. And it hasn't been easy for Nikolic to maintain himself, everyone knows about his slips.
Hi Eric,
Agreed! He can do a lot of damage via the legislative process if he wants to, especially if he returns after new elections. (Not to mention being a heartbeat away from the presidency.) And you're right - there's always the loose cannons among sympathizers that I probably didn't do enough to reference re: Kosovo.
But I just don't see the SRS as being able to exercise anywhere close to the level of authoritarian power they had in the closing days of Sloba. Not unless the DSS loses all of its collective marbles and turns its back completely on October 2000. Which, in this world of probabilistic outcomes and a Serbian political elite short on scruples or wisdom, is a scenario I suppose I can't quite dismiss entirely. :-7
Well. Two days later, and Nikolic has already made a move towards emergency powers. Yes, it might all be a not-so-subtle political marketing of sorts, but what if...
He's cost us approx. 1 billion euros in stock market losses for just two days. Yes, it might be just "normal fluctuations", but what if...
Both the EU and the US officials made strong statements regarding recent developments, and Serbia is, once again, in the headlines with more bad publicity. Yes, it's probably just those BBC chaps overreacting, but what if...
May we, please, uncurb the doomsday feelings now?
Well, I was trying to keep smileys out of post-titles, smiley-abuser that I am. :)
Everyone's entitled to their own views, certainly! Feel how you like. :-)
I didn't say he couldn't do damage; in fact, I said just the opposite in the post and my previous comment.
I admit, I had a look at the most recent constitution on states of emergency (Article 99, also 105). It's not comforting, given that the power to adopt such states is given to parliament. (Parliament would normally be a brake on such things, if voters would refrain from electing people like Nikolic, but I digress.)
On the other hand, the parliament just doesn't have the physical ability to implement a state of emergency, either. That would depend on the executive, whose spokesman just came out and said it's not even on their mind. And - even Nikolic backtracked to say he was speaking on a "theoretical" level.
My guess is he knows the DSS, but especially Kostunica, won't go for that kind of law-suspending recklessness. I'll be very surprised now if the SRS and DSS can put a government together by tomorrow (Tadic's deadline) after the original emergency comments.
What I don't have a feel for right now is how ordinary Serb voters will react to such comments in early elections, should this parliament be dissolved as of May 15. That is, did Nikolic's original talk about states of emergency just cost the SRS crucial votes? What do all of you think?
The executive (or, rather, what's left of it) is in bed with the radicals. Implementation is not an issue, since DSS would have to vote for emergency powers anyway.
Key point is the message sent by the anti-EU block: We'll stay in power, through another election cycle or through protracted state of emergency, or both. We have other options. You don't. You must comply with our demands. (If you're a Star Trek fan, add "Resistance is futile" here).
The question of how this will reflect on anti-EU block's standing in future elections is interesting. In the past, radicals have been known to fall significantly as soon as they moved from mild populistic banter to something more serious. On the other hand, average voter has the attention span of a dung beetle with ADD and a long-term memory to go with it. So, unless elections are held pretty soon (and both DSS and radicals shown us they can and will delay them), I'm afraid the impact of this little charade will not be significant.
And complied they have...
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